Central California Real Estate Trends
Roe Capital Management February 2010 Equity Market Outlook And January Performance Update
The hangover of the December holidays typically lingers a few weeks into the new year and 2010 was no exception. Tight ranges in the S&P gave us very few trading setups early in the month. We spent a protracted amount of time out of the market. As the month wore on and equity prices began to deteriorate, our programs managed to find a few suitable trading situations. The late month expansion in volatility notwithstanding, opportunities remained few and far between and as such, ROE Capital turned in a positive month with below average trading volume. (For more information on our managed futures performance, please review our complete January performance report).
Our correlation to the S&P has begun to reverse, which is good as I expect the S&P to be under pressure all year. Our managed futures colleagues (represented in the NewEdge CTA Index above) struggled in January as well, with trends proving elusive in many markets.
Monticello Equity
January 2010:
1.03%
2010 YTD: 1.03%
Jefferson Index
January 2010:
1.00%
2010 YTD: 1.00%
S&P 500
January 2010:
(3.70%)
2010 YTD: (3.70%)
Newedge CTA Index
January 2010:
(1.44%)‡
2010 YTD: (1.44%)‡
‡Estimate using data reported by 2/1/2010 | Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The better than expected GDP reported in January failed to reverse the equity losses of the month. All of the major averages took out their December lows which, as I noted in my year end review, is a bad omen for 2010 equity prices. After the beginning of the month bounce, the January jobs report looms large. Since February is seasonally the second worst performing month for the S&P, a catalyst will be required for a rally to gain traction.
A rally might materialize from a much stronger than expected jobs report building on strong ISM numbers. Without that catalyst, the S&P should move sideways to lower throughout February. The geopolitical situation looks to add pressure to equity prices as well. Iran is bristling over the US decision to deploy a patriot missile shield in the Persian Gulf. China is moving to cap its real estate bubble through tighter monetary policy, which will negatively impact global growth. Greece is facing what Moody’s called a “slow death” as it is unable to attract buyers for its debt at sustainable rates.
Taken in total, equities face an uphill battle in February. It is my hope that this added pressure will reveal more trading setups for my models.
At the end of January and in our year end review, we noted that the macro conditions argued for rising volatility in the major averages with sideways to lower prices throughout February. This was indeed the case in the first week of the month as the VIX raced to new 2010 highs and the S&P to new 2010 lows. This situation gave rise to many trading opportunities for our systems early in the month. Volatility faded sharply mid-month on the back of the equity rally, reducing our opportunities and we spent most of the last week of February in cash. Traders made several attempts to break the market at the end of the month, but prices rebounded to close the month.
Our Monticello Equity Spreads program booked its most successful month since April of 2009, with the Jefferson Index posting its most successful month since December of 2008 and its 12th consecutive positive month. (For detailed performance results, click here.) For the second month in a row, both of our programs had nearly identical performance, despite substantial variance in trading through the month. That is unlikely to continue.
The macro environment has not improved since our last survey. The situation in Greece has taken a turn for the absurd, as it becomes clear that it used OTC derivatives to mask the depth of its deficit and debt. Greece and its euro-zone equivalents remain unable to address their fiscal shortcomings because public unions undermine the political will to cut off the public trough. More than one sovereign default is imminent.
A similar situation continues to play out in various debt swamped US states. As Illinois is our home, it is our favorite example. The state finally admitted that it will likely have a $13 billion dollar budget shortfall-almost half it’s core 2010 budget-which is almost as much as California’s deficit, though Illinois has 1/3 the population of the Golden State. The politicians are talking about raising revenues to meet the crisis, but even a 300% hike in state income taxes would not fill the gap (especially considering the decline in incomes and employment in this recession). And of course, addressing only revenue sources does nothing to fix structural budget imbalances, enormous unfunded pension and health benefit liabilities or general government waste. California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, North Carolina and Florida are not far behind. Without a federal bailout, Illinois should be in default before the end of the year.
We want to be clear on what the risk of this unfolding sovereign debt crisis means. As all recent economic data has indicated, the global recovery is soft-even after trillions of dollars were thrown into the financial system by central banks and governments. High levels of public debt have prolonged past recoveries by placing debt burdens on future growth, but this debt environment is very different. Never before have so many wealthy nations carried such high levels of public debt. Either Western governments reign in the spending, which will keep us in a protracted (but necessary) period of economic stagnation, or they march onward to default, which brings on the second wave of global financial crisis. This is not a question of if for us, but when. Living standards in the West have increased on paper asset inflation in the last 20 years; that “juice” has to come out of the market, living standards must revert to income levels and then real economic growth can resume.
The disconnect between US equity market prices and reality will continue in the short term. The S&P 500 has retraced a little over 50% toward its 2010 high. Traders will gun for 1150 in the S&P, pouring into stocks the first days of the month of March. This rally should fade by the end of the first week and the S&P will be range-bound awaiting news (look for a potential surprise lower in the February non-farm payroll number). Bernanke indicated that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, but it is ending the purchase of mortgage backed securities at the end of March which could test the banks. If previous shallow recessions are any indication this deep recession will necessitate prolonged record low interest rates for years, even in the face of a sovereign debt crisis. With the euro in crisis, the dollar will find support in the lack of a currency alternative. Stocks remain cheap to cash, so the major averages should rally until the sovereign debt crisis forces the market to test its 2010 lows.
We expect near term volatility to return to elevated levels in the next few weeks. This should provide our systems with many trading opportunities in March.
John L. Roe| President | ROE Capital Management, Inc. | http://www.roecapital.com
Ranked as one of the top stock index CTAs in 2009. | For performance – http://www.roecapital.com/perform.asp | For market commentary – http://www.roecapital.com/newsleters.htm
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. An investment with ROE Capital Management is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the loss of more than their entire investment. Read and examine the disclosure document before seeking ROE Capital Management’s services.
About the Author
John L. Roe is the president and founder of ROE Capital Management, a commodity trading advisor offering managed futures investments trading equity index futures. ROE Capital Management was ranked among the top performers in its sector for 2009.
Defy The Trends : Economy
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